Red Sox ALDS Predictions More Art Than Science

Courtesy of NECN

As a lifelong Red Sox fan I know that the numbers don’t always tell the story. The press is famous for giving their prognostications with a certainty that makes me laugh. I will try to add to the discussion on what I think can make a difference in the upcoming series with the LA Angels. I just know that it is more art than science.

Sports writers and fans are obsessed with statistics, particularly in baseball. Truth be told the Angels are favored in this series, on paper at least.  They have won 5 of the 9 games we played them in the regular season.  In the post season though we have dominated with 9 wins out of 10.

The challenge for the LA Angels is almost more psychological than anything else.  A dominant hitter like Guerrero seems a shadow of himself during the post season, at least until now.  Lackey who has been pitching well can’t seem to handle the Red Sox.  They do have a running game that might affect the pitchers and get baserunners moved with the shortball but Lester and Beckett are not that easily frazzled.  Buckholz on the other hand who is slated to pitch game 3 may need to bring his focus to a new level in order to be effective against the run.

Many may be underestimating Victor Martinez and his arm.  It is well known that Varitek’s arm is a bit rusty but I have seen some pretty hard and fast throws from Martinez who has also been a great addition to the offense.

My prediction is the Boston Red Sox in 5, not for any statistical reason but for where they seem to be today.  Their rotation is supposed to start with Lester and Beckett with Buckholz going third and then bringing Lester and Beckett back to close it out.  Even if Buckholz implodes we have Matsuzaka and Wakefield.  Matsuzaka has been pretty solid since his return so that is a good insurance policy.

The other factor that no one seems to be talking about is the Red Sox offense.  Ortiz has been much better the second half.  Lowell seems to be healthy.  Bay, Ellsbury, and Pedroia can be one bat away from a huge hitting streak.  Let’s face it post season experience counts and that should be a big differentiator for us.  I think the Red Sox bats are going to explode.

Here’s NECNs perspective:

Update October 15th:

OH THE HORROR!